Posted by
Wil on Saturday, August 09, 2008 1:07:28 PM
Georgia has half as many people as New York City and is about as far away from us as its possible to be. It involves neither Islamic Terrorists nor American citizens. So does it matter? I think so. What should we do? On that I'm a little less sure.
Why it matters:
1) The main route for oil to enter Europe is through Russia. The other two are the Persian gulf shipping lanes, and a pipeline from Azerbaijan to the Black Sea in Georgia. If South Ossetia becomes Russian, their new border is just a few miles north of that pipeline. If the other area of Ossetian people becomes Russian, then all European oil comes through either Russia or Iran (except for the very small North Sea production). A Europe that depends totally on Russia for Oil becomes even more craven than we have seen.
2) Part of the problem that occured when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991 (and Yugoslavia as well) was how far to go. Whether to allow the independence of small breakaway Republics that had been under Soviet control for 70 years....Whether to allow states that had been first Russian then Soviet, in many cases since the 1700's or 1800's, to attain independence. Whether to allow ethnic enclaves within former Soviet Republics to break into their own independent states. The problem comes when you go too low level, the states are no longer continuous or economically viable. When Yugoslavia broke up, the peace agreement reached divided Bosnia by ethnic lines, creating a patchwork country that seemed impossible to ever make viable. I myself would have preferred a Lebanese style power share between ethnic groups. After Bosnia, the Europeans and America decided to make Kosovo independent. Its Albanian people had been subject to Serbia since the Ottoman times. Russia warned this would set off a flurry of ethnic independence claims. The first was Chechnya, which they suppressed ruthlessly. Also were South Ossetia which they supported to destabilize Georgia. When we accept the Wilsonian premise that all ethnicities deserve independence, where does it end? A good solution to this question will answer many question so far unasked throughout Eastern Europe, Africa, and Asia. An ugly war and failure to deal effectively will destabalize dozens of other ethnic questions around the world.
3) Georgia wanted NATO membership. They took most of the steps needed, have a representative government, civil rights, and many reforms. Germany said no, worried about Russian reaction. Now Russia is invading. This sets a bad precedent.
4) Georgia wa one of the coalition of nations willing to support us in Iraq. Despite their small size, they currently have the third largest number of troops there. We have a certain level of obligation to support them in their need as well.
So what should we do? Sending in troops seems out of the question. This is ot our war after all, and a proxy war with Russia does no one any good. Unfortunately, I have no good answers. I think we ought to do something, but I am at a loss as to what. Any suggestions?